by /u/Fraudster4lifes · 17th March, 2024 08:58 in /d/CafeDread
0 votes · 26 comments
- /u/ElCaptinoJackarino 27th March, 2024 - 04:14 Oh right. I forget what Sub Im in sometimes 😀 so used to seeing you around modding it was just instantly my first thought
by /u/tribalseed · 2024-03-26 16:12:00 in /d/DarkNetMarkets
0 votes · 19 comments
- /u/ElCaptinoJackarino 26th March, 2024 - 23:49 /u/PartyTime may I share this pic to explain how data is distributed normally please? Auto bot said needs mod approval. This sort of thing is hard to explain. Pics worth a thousand words
by /u/tribalseed · 2024-03-26 16:12:00 in /d/DarkNetMarkets
0 votes · 19 comments
- /u/ElCaptinoJackarino 26th March, 2024 - 23:47 Sure. This may help. Data tends to fall in a bell shaped curve where the average is in the middle with the highest probability and the further from the average you go the less probable it becomes (like male heights, maybe average is 5 ft 8" but someone 8 ft tall is extremely rare and unlikely- essentially a statistical hypothesis test like this just sees how unlikely it would be and if it crosses the threshold set it's considered "significant". Usually that threshold is 5% but for reasons explained that would never work for something like this- tens of millions of ppl would fall in the top 5%. So it would need to be the teensiest tiny fraction of people on the uttermost extreme end of the right tail. See graphs https://dump.li/image/get/7fd45ca6fcb00b56.png
by /u/tribalseed · 2024-03-26 16:12:00 in /d/DarkNetMarkets
0 votes · 19 comments
- /u/ElCaptinoJackarino 26th March, 2024 - 22:08 I often ponder this. Here's what I've concluded. It all depends on how much mail you get in total. And it's not the quantity that matters- ppl shop online and order 10 packs a week from Amazon, eBay, Etsy, etc What I think matters boils down to what's known as a statistical test of proportions (Google it). Almost all DNM packs originate from one particular state. Now. There's hard data on the average proportion of interstate mail sent from that state out of the total interstate mail sent. And that proportion can be tested against statistically. Let's say hypothetically that 12% of all interstate mail originates from State A. That means the average Joe should be receiving around 12% of their interstate packages from State A. Of course there's variation but the vast majority, if one were to tally all their interstate mail for one year, and calculate the proportion of that mail originating from State A, it would fall within +/- 2 standard deviations from the 12%, which I believe is something like the square root of p*(1-p)/n where n is the total number of interstate packs that person received for the year. So let's say someone receives 120 interstate packs per year, with the hypothetical statistic that 12% of interstate packs nationwide originate from state A. The standard deviation would be the square root of (0.12*0.88)/120 or about 3%. And 95% of all random people sampled will have a proportion within +/- 2 of those standard deviations, which for this particular individual would be +/- 6% Except nobody would care about those receiving less- only more. So the test would actually be done on one side. So 1.65 standard deviations on the upper side instead of 1.96 on each side, or about 5% for this particular person. So if this person receives more than 17% of their interstate mail from State A, that would be considered suspicious. Except, there's 350 million people in the US. 5% will receive more than +1.65 st dev just by random chance, or roughly 15 million ppl. So they'd HAVE to use more stringent criteria for statistical significance. Such as... oh I don't know. Instead of 5% perhaps they use 0.001% so only 3,500 people trigger the limit by random chance. Then they start going down the list, eliminating those who just happen to do a lot of business in State A or have some other legitimate reason for having such a high proportion of interstate mail from State A (cause if you're exceeding the limit for the top 0.01% you're definitely way, WAY outside of statistical norms). Most of those people likely have legitimate business they do in that state or are just random anomoles. But... the ones doing the most business on the DNM would also likely be in that group. So its just a matter of whittling away at that list, crossing off who's legit and looking into the short list of those remaining that couldn't be verified. I'm sure they'd rather do this for vendors thougy, not buyers. They could check the mean number of interstate packages sent by the population of people and businesses who send at least 1 interstate package per year (so as to eliminate the irrelevant millions from the dataset who don't even mail), and run a "test of means" to find those who violate the top 0.01%, then do as described above. Go down the list and start crossing off those who are verified legit, then use the remaining short list as a basis for starting an investigation. All that to say, frequency of packs matters not. Proportion of packs from a particular known sourcing location, on the other hand, does matter. But you'd have to order a metric ton to stand out, otherwise you'll be buried by tens, possibly hundreds of thousands (even millions?) of others.
by /u/tribalseed · 2024-03-26 16:12:00 in /d/DarkNetMarkets
0 votes · 19 comments